https://settled.report Independent audits of prediction-market strategy claims and whale track records. Every verdict is derived from resolved outcomes at executable prices — never from screenshots. https://settled.report/p/grok-arbitrage-bot/ https://settled.report/p/grok-arbitrage-bot/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT A beginner's guide on X says a simple bot that buys Yes and No for under $1 made its author $4,000+ in ten days, and links the wallet as proof. We read all 14,168 of that wallet's public records. It never made the trade the guide teaches, and its trading lost money once the guide was out. Verdict: Debunked. https://settled.report/p/two-sided-candle-bot/ https://settled.report/p/two-sided-candle-bot/ Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT An X article holds up one Polymarket bot as proof you can build your own with an AI backtesting tool. We pulled all 1.6 million of the bot's public transactions. It made about $402K in cash, and more than half of that was fee rebates paid by Polymarket. Verdict: Advertisement. https://settled.report/p/claude-overnight-bot/ https://settled.report/p/claude-overnight-bot/ Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT A viral X post says a Claude-built Polymarket agent turned $25 into $4,237 overnight, and offers it free to anyone who comments, reposts and follows. It names no wallet, and the dashboard in its video breaks its own arithmetic. Verdict: Advertisement. https://settled.report/lab/lab-weather-tails/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-weather-tails/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT Born from our audit of the "weather legends" article: test both the lottery-ticket story and the one real winner's style, at executable asks. Both lanes lost — the lottery lane catastrophically. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-streak-fade/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-streak-fade/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT Crypto candles genuinely mean-revert — we measured it across 118,000 candles before building anything. The pattern clears maker breakeven and nothing else. Then 17,491 live maker fills answered the only open question: adverse selection ate it. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-listing-fade/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-listing-fade/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT A 27,000-listing calibration study found brand-new markets systematically mispriced by band: mid-priced listings too rich, favorites too cheap. The executable follow-up looked like the best thing on the board at 29 settlements (+53.6%) — and read −15.2% at 289. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-fav-dump/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-fav-dump/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT A whale selling a 70–97¢ favorite should know something, and historically the dumped favorites did fail more than their price implied. Buying the other side at live prices lost money in both lanes. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-dormant-wake/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-dormant-wake/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT A wallet that traded, went silent for months, then returns with one large bet. Past its 30-trade gate it is still positive — but not by more than luck could produce. Verdict: Still testing. https://settled.report/lab/lab-dislocation-judge/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-dislocation-judge/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT When a market moves 20¢ in an hour, can an LLM tell real news from panic before the book settles? Early on it looked like it could. Past its 30-trade gate, the high-confidence calls lost money. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/p/whale-c2e7800b/ https://settled.report/p/whale-c2e7800b/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT $4,853,975 staked at an average entry of 57¢. Win rate 61.9% against a price-implied 56.5%. The skill test says: lucky so far. Verdict: Lucky, so far. https://settled.report/p/whale-2a2c53bd/ https://settled.report/p/whale-2a2c53bd/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT $6,393,161 staked at an average entry of 63¢. Win rate 44.8% against a price-implied 63.0%. The skill test says: bleeding. Verdict: Bleeding. https://settled.report/p/steel-nerves-weather/ https://settled.report/p/steel-nerves-weather/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT A viral Reddit post says one trader made $24,728 buying near-certain weather markets. The strategy class exists. This evidence for it doesn't survive arithmetic. Verdict: Unproven. https://settled.report/lab/lab-mega-band/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-mega-band/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Across 112,000 resolved whale bets, six-figure buys lose at nearly every price — except between 45¢ and 70¢, where they ran +23%. The prints stopped for a month, then came back: six markets, six wins so far. Verdict: Still testing. https://settled.report/p/five-minute-leader-fade/ https://settled.report/p/five-minute-leader-fade/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT A widely-shared article claims the leader of a 5-minute crypto candle wins 70% when order flow agrees — and should be faded when it doesn't. We ran both rules live against executable order books for weeks. The fade lost 25%. Verdict: Debunked. https://settled.report/p/weather-legends-audit/ https://settled.report/p/weather-legends-audit/ Tue, 28 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT A viral Medium listicle says the weather-market winners got rich buying 0.2–0.6¢ lottery buckets. We pulled the actual trade feeds of the profiled wallets. The real records: +0.2% to +7.4% grinding — and one of the five is currently losing. Verdict: Debunked. https://settled.report/lab/lab-weather-gpt/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-weather-gpt/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT An AI bot combining rule-based temperature models, GPT-4o, and two weather APIs, betting daily temperature markets. Lifetime score: −$138, plus the API bill. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-weather-drift/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-weather-drift/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT No LLM this time: pure meteorology against market asks, at seven different lead times, with three forecast models and per-station bias correction. The asks won every single round. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-settle-race/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-settle-race/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT The game just ended; the market hasn't resolved yet. Buy the winner for 97¢ and collect a riskless 3¢? We watched every final. There is never anything to buy. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-mm-reward/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-mm-reward/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT The platform pays daily rewards for resting orders near the mid on designated markets. Quote both sides as buys, stay inside the reward band, never improve the touch — and learn why the lonely market maker is the sniper's favorite target. Verdict: Still testing. https://settled.report/lab/lab-loser-fade/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-loser-fade/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Find wallets that reliably lose, bet against everything they buy. On paper it returned +38%. At real order books, the trade you'd actually place earns almost nothing. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-exit-rules/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-exit-rules/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Lock in the double? Cut the loser? We tested both against our own real positions. Holding to resolution beat every mechanical exit we tried — including in the case built to favor it. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-elite-follow/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-elite-follow/ Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Screen for wallets with the best lifetime records, then copy only them. The cleanest-sounding strategy on the board — and the data killed it twice. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-imminent-favorites/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-imminent-favorites/ Sun, 26 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT We expected 90–98¢ favorites close to resolution to be slightly underpriced. With real money they won less often than their prices implied — and each loss cost about fifteen wins. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-whale-copy/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-whale-copy/ Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT The founding strategy: watch large bets hit the tape, copy them within seconds at small size. On real money it made +2.1% — and all of it came in one World Cup month. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-dead-markets/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-dead-markets/ Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Somewhere in the long tail, a market's outcome has already happened and the price hasn't noticed. An LLM read the rules and the news for thousands of markets, hunting for exactly that. The bounty didn't cover the ammunition. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-implication-scan/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-implication-scan/ Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT If market A happening logically requires market B, then A can never price above B — any violation is riskless profit. An LLM found over a thousand implication pairs. The books never once mispriced them. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-flow-checkpoint/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-flow-checkpoint/ Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Follow the leading side when exchange flow confirms it; fade it when flow contradicts it. A widely-circulated rule, implemented exactly as published — with the entry price the publication forgot. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-dust-grid/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-dust-grid/ Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT A real wallet grinds out six figures resting cheap bids on both sides of every crypto candle, fee-free. We simulated the same grid honestly for a week. It lost 31.6%. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-candle-arb/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-candle-arb/ Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT If Up and Down ever sum below a dollar, buying both locks a riskless profit. We scanned for it 4,195 times, then tracked every market's entire life. Total opportunities: effectively zero. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-metar-lock/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-metar-lock/ Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Forget forecasting — wait until the day's high has already happened, then buy the winning bucket. The purest information-latency trade we could design, and it still went 1-for-6. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-repricing-lag/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-repricing-lag/ Sun, 12 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Bitcoin jumps on the exchange; the prediction market's quote hasn't moved yet. Buy the lagging side before it reprices — the classic latency trade. The quote wasn't stale. It was right. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-options-implied/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-options-implied/ Fri, 10 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT "Will BTC be above $K on date X" is a digital option, and the options market prices those with billions in open interest. Compare the two venues and trade the gap. There is no gap. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-staircase/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-staircase/ Sun, 05 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT A 27-million-trade backtest said underdogs that climb keep climbing — +15% per cycle. At real order books the same rule lost 13.5%. The difference was exactly the spread. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-structural-arb/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-structural-arb/ Fri, 03 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMT Multi-outcome events must sum to $1; probability ladders must be monotonic. Scanners find "violations" all day long. Then you check the live book, and nearly every one is a mirage. Verdict: No edge. https://settled.report/lab/lab-insider-fresh/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-insider-fresh/ Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT A brand-new wallet funds up and immediately places one big, focused bet. Surely that's informed money. Five thousand paper copies say: no. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-news-llm/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-news-llm/ Tue, 23 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Give a language model the resolution rules and fresh headlines, hide the price, and ask for a fair probability. Where it disagreed with the market, the market was right. Verdict: Negative. https://settled.report/lab/lab-calib-fade/ https://settled.report/lab/lab-calib-fade/ Wed, 27 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT Historical data showed some price bands win less often than their price implies — so sell into them. The calibration was real; the trade was not. Verdict: Negative.