About me

Why this site exists

Prediction-market social media is full of screenshots: a profile showing six figures of profit, a bot that turned $25 into thousands overnight, a strategy that "can't lose". Almost none of it comes with anything you can check. Every trade on Polymarket is public, though, so most of these claims can be tested against the record. This site does that, and publishes the result whether it flatters the claim or not.

My own trading, and why it matters here

I run my own automated trading system on Polymarket, and have since early 2026. It also records a large amount of market data: whale trades, order books and resolved outcomes. That data is what the claim checks are measured against.

The Lab is that system's notebook. Each entry is a strategy I tried, the rule I used to judge it, and what happened at prices I could actually have traded. Most of them failed, and the Lab says so.

This is a conflict of interest worth stating plainly. I trade the same kinds of markets I write about, and I have an interest in being right. Since Polymarket restricted new trades from British Columbia in July 2026, most of my system runs on paper (simulated) money. If a page is about something my own money was riding on, it says so.

What I don't do

• No ads, no affiliate links, no sponsored posts, no paid reviews.
• No signals, copy-trading, courses or bots for sale.
• No analytics or tracking. See the privacy policy.
• No financial advice. I'm not a licensed adviser, and nothing here tells you what to trade.

How the pages are written

Drafts are written with Anthropic's Claude, an AI model, working from numbers my own scripts pull from public market data. I review every draft and publish it by hand; nothing goes out automatically. The method page explains how a verdict is decided.

Get in touch

Found a mistake? Want a claim checked? Use the contact page or submit a claim. Corrections are published on the page they affect, with the date they were made.