“Almost every entry is between 12 and 40 cents”: a quarter of the money was, and ten wins made most of the profit

The short version

The post went up on X on October 23, 2026 and had about 4,700 views when we read it. It says the trader @GamblingOdyssey made $766,079 in a year “by betting on outcomes the market doesn’t believe in”: NBA underdogs, football draws and UFC upsets, with “almost every entry” at 12–40¢ a share, typical bets of $5K to $15K paying 2x to 7x, and a 51.6% win rate “even though most entries are priced as less than 40% likely”. It lists five big wins, led by Spain to win the World Cup, and links the trader’s profile.

Every trade on Polymarket is public, so we downloaded the wallet’s full history from Polymarket’s data API, 28,886 records from October 22, 2025 to October 28, 2026, and the result of each of the 2,097 markets it traded. The headline is real: the profile in the post’s video shows $766.1K, and Polymarket’s own figure that night was $765,762. That figure is before fees; after $32,065 of fees the profit was $733,697. The five wins in the post are real and match to the dollar; Spain cost $38,535 and returned $132,913, most of it from selling shares before the tournament ended.

The description of how the money was made is wrong. Of the wallet’s 2,105 positions, 767 (36%) were bought at 12–40¢, and they took 25% of the $8.76M it spent. 73% of the money went on sides priced at 40¢ or more, including $1.39M at 80¢ or more. The average position was bought at 48¢. That is why the win rate is ordinary: the prices it paid implied 47.7% wins, and it won 50.5% (1,062 of 2,105) by our count. The UFC part does not hold either: its UFC underdog bets lost $49,355, and its UFC profit came from favorites.

The cheap bets did make most of the money, $514,983, but through a handful of wins. The wallet’s 10 biggest wins, all bought at 12–30¢ between January and July, made $533,379. Without them, its other 757 positions at 12–40¢ lost $18,396 and won 221 times where their prices implied 217, so the market priced those well. The 20 biggest wins made $776,537, more than the wallet’s whole profit; its other 2,085 positions lost $56,580 between them. The one style that looks strong beyond a few wins is football draws: 295 bets, +$169,096, 100 wins against 84 implied.

The post says the trader “is not slowing down”. Polymarket’s daily figures give about +$56,700 for the month to the post, close to the post’s +$58,742, and +$8,945 for the week. But positions opened before August 1 made $704,958, while those opened from August 1 to the post made $32,248 on $1.27M, and the 91 opened since the post have lost $17,249. Across all its positions the wallet won 57 more times than its prices implied, which by chance alone would happen about once in 330 tries. But this wallet was picked out for its profit (Polymarket ranks it about 282nd of all wallets), and a run like this is what you would expect to find somewhere among that many. Verdict: the profit and the wins are real, but most of the money was not bet on 12–40¢ underdogs, most of the profit came from ten bets, and the wallet has made little since August.